(Friedman, Baker, Mellers, Tetlock, & Zeckhauser, 2018)
and those distinctions help them more reliably distinguish
between 60/40 and 40/60 bets, even 55/45 and 45/55 bets.
Granularity in assessments of uncertainty pays off in accuracy.
Practitioners of cost–benefit analysis can readily compute
the net value to society of having productions systems—like
prediction polls and markets—that generate better probability estimates for policymakers (Sunstein, 2018). But setting
up production systems that hold up under real-world pressures will be a huge challenge that will require drawing on
many areas of behavioral and social science. It will not be
enough just to order analysts to use numbers. Analysts will
need to feel that it is psychologically safe to do what
“superforecasters” did—and focus, laser-like, on accuracy.
That means analysts will need to feel that they can make
mistakes of either under- or overestimation of threats and
opportunities and resist shading their estimates to please
powerful factions that would prefer one answer over the
other (Edmondson & Lei, 2014). None of that will be easy.
Organizations that speak truth to power are hard to sustain.
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